I love William Gibson, but I don't believe in the Jackpot

It’s easy to believe the world is hurtling toward disaster when every headline screams crisis. Wars. Climate change. Economic turmoil. But look at the data and you’ll see humanity is progressing in ways that were once unimaginable. Extreme poverty is collapsing. Medicine is curing what used to be death sentences. Renewable energy is beating fossil fuels on price and scale.

The future isn’t a dystopia waiting to happen—unless we let it be. There are hard choices ahead, and yes, some of the solutions sound unthinkable today. Universal basic income. Open migration. Cutting the workweek for everyone. These ideas aren’t fringe; they’re inevitable if we’re serious about navigating the challenges ahead.

Let’s explore the evidence that shows progress is happening, examine William Gibson’s concept of the “Jackpot,” and address some controversial ideas about how to navigate our future.

Extreme poverty is becoming a relic of history. In 1990, 36% of the world lived on less than $2.15 a day. 2 billion people. By 2017, that number was under 9%. COVID-19 slowed the progress, but the trajectory remains clear. The World Bank estimates that eradicating extreme poverty within our lifetimes is plausible.

In health, the advances are just as profound. mRNA technology, which delivered COVID-19 vaccines at speed, is targeting diseases like malaria and cancer. Life expectancy continues to rise globally, driven by access to healthcare and sanitation, as well as cutting-edge innovations. A baby girl born today might well live to 90, but it’s possible that with breakthrough technologies such as biological age reversal, senescent cell clearance, and stem cell and gene therapies, lifespans of 150 years are in reach. AI-driven diagnostics are catching diseases earlier.

The global shift to renewable energy is reshaping economies. Solar and wind are now the cheapest energy sources in much of the world, and innovations in energy storage and grid tech are solving what used to be their Achilles’ heel: reliability. Fossil fuels aren’t dead yet, but their days are numbered. My involvement with Libertine FPE showed me just how much the petrostates are getting into renewable energy: everyone sees the inevitable shift.

Space exploration is unlocking new possibilities, from a return to the Moon to the dream of colonizing Mars. These breakthroughs are essential tools for addressing the challenges we face, the biggest one being the potential of a species-killing event, whether man-made or coming from space. If we want to be sure to never go the way of the dinosaurs, we need to spread out into the solar system (I’m less convinced by the need to go further, but hey, never say never.)

Social progress is slower, messier, and harder to quantify than tech or health gains, but it’s real. Movements for racial justice, gender equality, and LGBTQ+ rights are making strides worldwide. Economic growth in developing nations is lifting millions into the middle class every year, unlocking access to education, entrepreneurship, and opportunities that once felt impossible.

The “Jackpot” and the Unthinkable

William Gibson’s “Jackpot” concept paints a bleak future: a world where technological progress coexists with environmental collapse and societal breakdown.

The Jackpot encompasses various interconnected disasters (thank you Perplexity.ai!):

• Climate change and its consequences (droughts, water shortages)

• Ecological collapse (crop failures, loss of keystone species and pollinators)

• Pandemics and antibiotic resistance

• Economic turmoil

• Infrastructure breakdown

It’s seductive, especially if you focus on the crises dominating the news. But the trends I see today tell me a different story. Humanity is solving problems that once seemed insurmountable, all while the global population has more than doubled in the last century. Progress doesn’t demand suffering—it demands innovation.

Here’s where the debate gets contentious. Some argue the solutions to our biggest challenges lie in drastic measures: cutting travel, shrinking populations, or celebrating young people’s obsession with social media because it keeps them “idle.” (That one proposed by Juliet Oxborrow, thanks!)

These ideas miss the mark.

Travel isn’t the problem; unsustainable travel is. Electric planes, high-speed rail, and sustainable fuels are already transforming the way we move. Eliminating travel means eliminating cross-cultural collaboration, a powerful good.

Population decline is a crisis, not a solution. Falling birth rates in the West are already creating labour shortages and economic stagnation. Innovation—not fewer people—is the answer. Urban farming, renewable energy, and circular economies show we can sustain larger populations without overwhelming the planet.

Social media addiction isn’t progress. Yes, it keeps some young people from travelling or starting families, but at what cost? Skyrocketing mental health issues, reduced empathy, and social fragmentation. Technology should empower people, not numb them into complacency.

Instead of retreating, we need to embrace bold, forward-thinking ideas. My three favourites are:

Universal basic income (UBI). Automation and AI could gut traditional industries. UBI is the logical next step, ensuring everyone has a safety net while freeing people to pursue creative, caregiving, or entrepreneurial work.

Open migration. Declining populations in wealthier nations means immigration isn’t just an opportunity—it’s a necessity. Loosening borders and enabling economic migration creates win-win scenarios: labour mobility for host countries and wealth redistribution for migrants and their communities. The easiest way to escape poverty is to go where there is less poverty.

A shorter workweek for everyone. If AI and robotics boost productivity, why cling to outdated models of labor? Cutting the workweek will improve mental health and family life, but I also believe it will boost innovation—additional time for diverse activities outside of work inspires fresh ideas—and there is evidence to this effect, including from my old pals at Canon UK.

The future will involve trade-offs, but giving up on travel, population growth, or meaningful human connection isn’t the answer. Instead, we need to lean into the “unthinkable” ideas that challenge outdated norms and push us toward a world where prosperity is shared.

Optimism isn’t naïve. It’s necessary. The world isn’t perfect—but it’s better than it was, and it can be better still.

The culture must be built.

Have a happy new year(s) everyone!

PS For anyone who hasn't read them, a recommendation to read William Gibson's jackpot books, The Peripheral and Agency.